The Fate of Marriage in NY Could Impact Obama's Re-Election Campaign

The question of whether New York lawmakers will pass a marriage equality bill may lead to a larger question about how President Obama will play to the GLBT community in 2012.

That's one point of consensus between CNN's LZ Granderson and other online commentators. Granderson speculated in a June 21 article that if marriage equality is defeated once more in New York, Obama will have a "tricky" task in asking "a disappointed crowd... for financial support when, if pushed, he would reveal he is not fully going to be on their side," Granderson wrote.

On the other hand, a win for marriage equality could well lead to a new wave of enthusiasm and optimism that would give Obama a boost.

"If marriage equality passes in New York, he's in the clear," Granderson wrote. "All he has to do is show some clips from last week's debate, mention the Don't Ask, Don't Tell repeal a few times and pass a bucket around."

One thing that Obama has going for him is a record of having done more to support GLBT equality than any other president in history has, Granderson argued. Aside from overseeing last year's congressional vote to repeal DADT, Obama has declined to defend an anti-gay law from 1996, the so-called "Defense of Marriage" Act, in federal court, where the measure is under challenge in at least 10 cases.

Some GLBT equality advocates might disagree. Rights leaders have expressed disappointment at the number of reforms Obama has accomplished that directly affect gay individuals and their families, and complained about what they feel is a slow pace in accomplishing the reforms that Obama has implemented.

Obama has said that he prefers to allow such issues to progress through legislative channels, rather than attempt to impose an executive order that could ignite resentment and simply be repealed by a successor.

Noting that "Five of the seven GOP candidates said they would go so far as to support some form of anti-gay discrimination written directly into the Constitution, including leading candidate Mitt Romney," Granderson opined that "President Obama is the lesser of two evils."

A June 21 blog at PhillyMag.com disagreed with Granderson on the issue of whether Obama is necessarily a GLBT equality champion, citing Obama's past statements indicating he does not support marriage equality and noting that the president has proven to be a "moderate" on many issues important to the GLBT community.

"[W]hile the administration's push to repeal 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' and its refusal to honor DOMA are definitely important steps in the fight for LGBT rights in this country, it's a little naive to suggest that Obama is an absolute supporter of gay rights and gay marriage," noted the blog posting's author, Natalie Hope McDonald. "He's described marriage as 'between a man and a woman' many times in the past, worried perhaps of offending his base of supporters in the religious and African-American communities.

While Granderson may be overly optimistic about Obama's commitment to gay marriage, he does convincingly credit the president with advancing other LGBT rights, having done more for the community than just about any other president in U.S. history," added McDonald. "But does this really have to do with Obama's own platform or more with expected modern societal shifts, and LGBT advocates becoming more aggressive -- and organized -- in working toward equal rights?"

McDonald went on to warn, "[N]o one should underestimate the dark horse that is Fred Karger, a Republican candidate for president who just so happens to be gay. He may be low in the polls (if not obsolete) among a majority of Republican voters, but he stands a chance of courting support from more moderate and even conservative Log Cabin voters."

But McDonald agreed that the current slate of GOP hopefuls for the 2012 race is top-heavy with anti-gay candidates.

"What Obama might have going for him -- in addition to his intellectual stamina on many issues that are important to gay voters -- is the fact that most of the GOP candidates vying for his seat have supported some sort of anti-gay measure (with the exception of Karger who has never held office)," noted McDonald, who also agreed that the fate of marriage equality in New York could have a significant impact on the fate of Obama's re-election campaign.

"Even though the president has little to do with what the legislators in New York decide," McDonald wrote, "the success of same-sex marriage rights would shine a positive light on his administration.

"New York also has the possibility of influencing other marriage equality debates across the country," McDonald added, observing, "if it passes, Pennsylvania will be surrounded by states including New Jersey and Delaware that support some form of marriage or civil unions for LGBT couples."

The repeal of DADT is in abeyance until the president, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Secretary of Defense all certify that America's fighting men and women are ready to accept openly gay and lesbian patriots in their midst. Until then, gay servicemembers are still subject to separation from the military.

Many of the issues critical to gay and lesbian families cannot be resolved until DOMA is repealed. The measure singles out gay and lesbian families for exclusion from legal recognition, rights, and protections on the federal level. As a result, marriage is available in only five states and the District of Columbia. Bi-national families face often insurmountable obstacles to remaining together unless the American partner is willing to emigrate elsewhere. Same-sex families are required to pay substantially more out of pocket for taxes and health coverage than heterosexual couples do. And a crushing tax burden imperils surviving partners who, if they could have married, would not face exorbitant bills upon inheriting their own home from a deceased partner whose name was on the deed.

Obama has worked around some limitations, directing hospitals to allow same-sex couples visitation privileges last year, and reminding state governments that they may choose to grant some options to same-sex couples with respect to Medicaid earlier this month.

Moreover, in 2009 Obama signed the first -- and, so far, the only -- federal law that specifically extends protections to gay Americans, the Matthew Shepard James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act. The law was named after a young gay man, Matthew Shepard, who was brutally beaten, then tied to a fence outside of Laramie, Wyoming, and left to die by Aaron McKinney and Russell Henderson on Oct. 6 or 7, 1998; and also after an African American man, James Byrd, Jr., who was dragged to death by three white men in a pickup truck, Shawn Berry, Lawrence Brewer, and John King, outside of Jasper, Texas, on June 7, 1998.

If marriage equality is granted to gay and lesbian families in New York, the addition of that populous state will mean that twice as many same-sex families live in an area where they may legally participate in marriage, at least on the state level, according to law and public policy think tank the Williams Institute.